Updated August 1, 2026. Quick answer: “can I retire?” has a computable answer, and it is not a percentage — it is a gap, expressed in dollars a year and in working years. Enter what you have, what you expect from Social Security and what you spend, and this returns the sustainable figure, the shortfall if there is one, and how many more years of work would close it. It is deterministic arithmetic on assumptions you set and can see, not a simulation.
The calculator
Why the answer comes as a gap rather than a yes
Because a yes hides how close the call was. A plan that works at a 5% real return and fails at 3% is a different proposition from one that works at both, and the only way to see which you have is to move the assumption and watch. If the answer flips easily, that is the finding — not a reason to pick the friendlier number.
The gap in working years is the more useful of the two outputs, because it is the lever most people actually control. It also compounds twice: another year of work is a year you do not draw down, a year the balance grows, and one fewer year to fund.
The bridge years are where early retirement breaks
Retire at 62 and claim Social Security at 67 and there are five years funded entirely by the portfolio — the heaviest withdrawal period of the whole plan, arriving first, when the balance is largest and most exposed. The calculator reports those years separately for that reason. They are also the cheapest tax years most people will ever have, which is what makes them the natural window for Roth conversions before required distributions and Social Security stack on top.
Two related traps worth knowing before you pick a retirement age: retiring before 65 means buying health coverage yourself, and a conversion done in those years can push you over the ACA subsidy cliff. Later, the same income drives Medicare premium surcharges on a two-year lag.
What this deliberately does not do
No Monte Carlo simulation and no sequence-of-returns modelling. Those produce a probability that reads as precision and rests on the same guess about returns that you just made explicitly. No tax modelling either: pre-tax balances are shown gross, and tax on withdrawals will reduce what they deliver — which is exactly why the account split matters and why the order you draw from them is its own decision.
Next questions, each with its own arithmetic: when to claim Social Security · a pension offer, as a hurdle rate · whether an adviser earns their fee in retirement.
General information, not financial advice. The output is only as good as the assumptions you enter, which is why they are all visible and adjustable.
If the gap is real, the contribution side is the first lever: what the full catch-up stack is worth — including the age 60-63 window, which is the largest contribution allowance that exists and lasts exactly four years.
The costs decided years before you see them: the Part B late-enrolment penalty (10% per full year, permanent), the Part D penalty (1% per month, no threshold), and the HSA six-month lookback — where Medicare backdates and your contributions become excess retroactively.
Thinking about clearing the mortgage first? Run it against your own numbers — including the deduction reality check, since a couple both over 65 has a $35,500 standard deduction in 2026 and most mortgage interest therefore deducts nothing, and the gross-up if the money comes from an IRA.
If the money is in the TSP, the rulebook is its own: the 10% penalty turns on the year you separated, not your age when you withdraw, and that exception does not survive a rollover to an IRA. What keeping it or moving it costs puts the difference in dollars.
If the pension is a federal one, the rulebook is its own: what the FERS annuity actually comes to (1% a year, 1.1% at 62 with 20 years, less five-twelfths of a percent for every full month under 62), and the separation choice that decides whether federal health insurance survives it.
Protection is a separate question from tax: a 401(k) and an IRA are not equally protected, and a rollover changes which rules apply — ERISA covers the plan in every state, while an IRA falls back on whatever your state provides.
For scale, from the Federal Reserve’s own survey data computed in-house: half of households aged 55–64 hold under $16,600 in retirement accounts, while the average is $306,404 — where any balance actually ranks, and why the two numbers differ so violently.
What retirees actually spend
Any answer this calculator gives depends on a spending assumption, so it is worth anchoring that assumption to measured data rather than a rule of thumb. We computed the following from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure microdata for 2024 (Interview survey), reconciled against BLS’s own published table:
| Age of head | Mean spending | Median spending |
|---|---|---|
| 55-64 | $83,102 | $63,323 |
| 65-74 | $64,232 | $50,068 |
| 75+ | $54,915 | $41,548 |
Use the median, not the mean. The mean runs about 30 percent higher in every cohort because a minority of high-spending households pull it up. Medians here are annualised from each household’s single observed quarter, which spreads them wider than a true annual distribution would.
The full study, method and reconciliation
Before the projection, the context: where $1 million sits in the measured distribution.
For the spending side of the same question — what households like yours actually spend.
If the answer is roughly yes, the next question is what to do with the years in between — the countdown, ordered by which decisions close first.
All the numbers, kept current. This page uses 8 figures from our claims register — every figure we track is on one page, each with the year it applies to and a plain statement of what makes it move.
The calculator says yes or no. It cannot say what to do about it.
This tool tests one path against one set of assumptions. What it cannot do is design the sequence — which account funds which years, what a low-income year is worth converting into, and how that interacts with an ACA subsidy before 65 and IRMAA after it. If the answer came back close, it is close on sequencing rather than on returns, and that is a bounded piece of work worth pricing.
Before you start, what actually happens. The matching service is run by WiserAdvisor, an independent advisor-matching company. It opens on their site, asks for your ZIP code and a few questions, and matches you with 2 to 3 vetted advisors. It is free to you.
WiserAdvisor states the service is built for portfolios of $250,000 and above, and this is aimed at readers with retirement accounts at that scale. By submitting you consent to emails, phone calls and text messages from WiserAdvisor and up to three advisors, so expect to be contacted. Clear Money Guide is paid when you complete the form, whether or not you ever hire anyone.
Compare fees, scope, conflicts, credentials and fiduciary duty before you hire anyone. This is not the only way to find an adviser.
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