2026 edition · the decision guide for Clear Money Guide’s Roth conversion series: what a conversion costs · state taxes · the IRMAA cliffs.
Updated July 25, 2026. Quick answer: A conversion is worth it when the rate you pay today is lower than the rate you (or your heirs) would pay later — and 2026 changed the calculus in one big way: the sunset urgency is gone. OBBBA made the 10%–37% structure permanent, so “convert before rates snap back” is no longer a reason. The durable reasons remain: low-income gap years before RMDs, the widow’s penalty, high-bracket heirs facing the 10-year rule, and paying the tax from outside funds. The durable reasons to wait: crossing into 32%+, the IRMAA cliffs after 63, and the senior-deduction clawback — quantified below.
Two corrections before the framework (verified on-page July 25, 2026)
A page-one guide still tells readers federal rates “go back to where they were starting in 2026” and that RMDs begin “at age 72.” Both are years stale: OBBBA (P.L. 119-21, signed July 4, 2025) made the current seven-rate structure permanent — there is no scheduled sunset, and Rev. Proc. 2025-32 sets the 2026 thresholds under it — and SECURE 2.0 §107 moved the RMD age to 73, rising to 75 for those born in 1960 or later (born-1959 filers should plan on 73 pending final regulations). If a conversion pitch leans on the sunset, it’s describing a law that no longer exists.
The five signals a conversion pays
(1) Gap years. Retired, but RMDs and Social Security haven’t started: taxable income collapses, and every dollar converted fills the 10–22% brackets that would otherwise go unused — the single strongest fact pattern. (2) The widow’s penalty. A surviving spouse files single: half the bracket widths, same portfolio — converting while both spouses are alive locks in joint-filer rates forever. (3) High-bracket heirs. Inherited traditional IRAs must drain within 10 years, taxed at the heirs’ peak-career rates; inherited Roths drain tax-free. (4) A big-deduction year. Large charitable gifts or business losses create cheap conversion room. (5) Outside funds for the tax. Converting 100 cents on the dollar is what makes the arithmetic work — details on the cost page.
When it stops paying
Crossing into 32%+ to escape a future 22–24% is a losing trade absent estate motives. The IRMAA cliffs: from the year you turn 63, conversion income can raise Medicare premiums two years out — $1 over a threshold costs the full tier (tables and cliff checker). The senior-deduction clawback (2025–2028), with the arithmetic shown: each 65+ filer’s $6,000 OBBBA deduction phases out at 6% of MAGI above $75,000 single / $150,000 joint. Losing deduction while adding income means each conversion dollar in the band is effectively taxed at your marginal rate times 1.06 per qualifying spouse — +1.32 points in the 22% bracket for a single 65+ filer, and up to +2.64 to +2.88 points for a couple with both spouses 65+ (6% × 2 × the 22–24% marginal rate), until the deduction is fully gone at $175,000 / $250,000 MAGI. And a planned move: converting the year before relocating from a high-tax state wastes the single cheapest lever on the board — twelve states tax conversions at $0.
Three worked personas (2026 schedules, arithmetic shown)
The gap-year couple — both 62, retired, $60,000 taxable income, converting $80,000: federal cost $13,520 (16.9% effective), all of it filling the 12% and 22% brackets they’d otherwise waste, with zero IRMAA exposure at 62. The textbook yes. The 67-year-old single filer — $40,000 taxable, converting $30,000: federal cost $5,560 (18.5%), cheap on brackets — but her MAGI now sits against the $75,000 phase-out line and the $109,000 IRMAA cliff two years before it matters most; a smaller annual conversion likely beats one big one. The high-income couple — 66 and 64, $180,000 taxable, converting $150,000: federal cost $35,372 (23.6%), plus the second IRMAA tier in 2028 (about $2,885 per enrollee per year) and a fully clawed-back senior deduction — worth it only if the estate math (heirs, widow’s penalty) is doing the heavy lifting.
The honest bottom line
Post-OBBBA, a Roth conversion is no longer a race against a sunset — it’s a bracket-arbitrage and estate-planning tool that rewards multi-year sequencing: fill the cheap brackets every gap year, stop at the cliffs, convert before 63 where possible, and let the state table tell you whether geography changes the answer. A plan that coordinates all four layers — brackets, state, IRMAA, and the deduction band — across five or ten years is exactly what a fee-only planner earns their fee on:
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Suggested citation: Clear Money Guide, “Is a Roth Conversion Worth It in 2026?,” clearmoneyguide.com/is-a-roth-conversion-worth-it/. Free to cite with attribution and a link. Verified July 25, 2026; persona arithmetic computed directly from Rev. Proc. 2025-32 schedules.
Primary sources
Run your own numbers. Roth conversion guardrail estimator — find the bracket ceiling for this year.