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Social Security COLA 2027: Projection, Method, and the Oct 14 Announcement

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How the COLA is actually calculatedWhat a projected percentage means in dollarsThe announcement itselfSources

Updated October 16, 2026. Quick answer. The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is 3.6%, announced by the Social Security Administration on October 14, 2026 (SSA press release and 2027 COLA fact sheet), compared with 2.8% for 2026. It applies to benefits payable from January 2027, and SSA says the average retirement benefit will rise by $75 a month. The COLA is the increase in the average CPI-W from July to September 2025 (317.265) to July to September 2026 (328.746): 328.746 divided by 317.265 is 1.0362, which rounds to 3.6%. We computed the 2026 average from the BLS monthly values (July 327.104, August 328.481, September 330.654); SSA does not print the averages in its release, and the 3.6% is SSA’s announced figure.

More on the 2027 tax figures: the 2027 nanny tax threshold.

Related figures: the 2026 maximum Social Security benefit and the CSRS and FERS 2027 COLA status.

The 2026 earnings test limits: the 2026 earnings test limits.

Every Social Security cost-of-living adjustment from 2009 through 2027, by the year it is paid, ending with the announced 2027 increase of 3.6%19 horizontal bars, one per payment year: 2009, 5.8%; 2010, 0.0%; 2011, 0.0%; 2012, 3.6%; 2013, 1.7%; 2014, 1.5%; 2015, 1.7%; 2016, 0.0%; 2017, 0.3%; 2018, 2.0%; 2019, 2.8%; 2020, 1.6%; 2021, 1.3%; 2022, 5.9%; 2023, 8.7%; 2024, 3.2%; 2025, 2.5%; 2026, 2.8%; 2027, 3.6%. Three years produced no increase at all. The 2027 bar is the increase SSA announced on October 14, 2026.19 announced increases, the latestfor 2027Social Security cost-of-living adjustment, bythe year it is paidevery increase since 2009, as published by SSA20095.8%20100.0%no increase: the index did not exceed itsbase quarter20110.0%still no increase: the index had notpassed its 2008 base quarter20123.6%measured against 2008, not 2010: the basedoes not reset in a 0.0% year20131.7%20141.5%20151.7%20160.0%no increase: the index did not exceed itsbase quarter20170.3%measured against 2014, not 2015: the basedoes not reset in a 0.0% year20182.0%20192.8%20201.6%20211.3%20225.9%20238.7%20243.2%20252.5%20262.8%20273.6%announced October 14, 20260%2%4%6%8%Clear Money Guide · SSA, Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (publishedseries), recomputed from SSA’s published CPI-W monthly tableunder 42 U.S.C. §415(i) · CC BY 4.0
What an announced COLA has actually looked like, through the 2027 announcement. Each bar is the increase paid in that calendar year, taken from SSA’s own published series. Across the 18 years from 2009 to 2026 they run from 0.0% to 8.7%, with a median of 1.85%, and 3 of them were 0.0% — no increase at all. Every bar here was also recomputed independently from SSA’s published CPI-W monthly table under 42 U.S.C. §415(i), and all 18 reproduce the published figure exactly, which is why the series starts at 2009: that is the first payment year whose whole calculation rests on index values BLS publishes to three decimals. 3 of these rows carry the part a headline number hides — after a 0.0% year the measuring base does not reset, so the 2012 increase of 3.6% was measured against the third quarter of 2008, 3 years earlier, and not against the year before it (§415(i)(1)(D)). The 2027 bar is the 3.6% SSA announced on October 14, 2026. We reproduced it from the BLS monthly CPI-W values (328.746 divided by 317.265, rounded to the nearest tenth), but it is not one of the 18 series bars recomputed from SSA’s own table. CC BY 4.0.

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How the COLA is actually calculated

By statute (42 U.S.C. §415(i)), the COLA is the percentage increase in the average CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) for the third quarter of the current year over the third quarter of the most recent year that produced an increase. For 2027 that comparison was July to September 2026 against July to September 2025, a 3.6% increase, which SSA announced on October 14, 2026.

BLS has since published the September 2026 CPI-W (330.654), which closed the measuring quarter. The statute requires the determination to be published in the Federal Register within 45 days of the quarter’s close, that is by November 14, 2026 (42 U.S.C. §415(i)(2)(D)); SSA’s press announcement came first, on October 14, 2026. The increase takes effect with December 2026 benefits, the payment that arrives in January 2027 (§415(i)(2)(A)(ii)).

What the 3.6% means in dollars

A COLA percentage applies to your own current benefit, not a generic “average” figure — a 3.6% COLA on a $1,800 monthly benefit is about $65 more per month; on a $2,800 benefit, about $101 more. The number that actually matters for your budget is the net increase after Medicare Part B’s premium (usually deducted directly from the check) rises too — see what the hold-harmless rule protects you from, and who it doesn’t cover.

The announcement itself

SSA announced the official COLA on October 14, 2026, with the 2027 maximum taxable earnings base ($192,300) and the other automatic adjustments in its 2027 COLA fact sheet. Payments to people receiving SSI rise by the same 3.6%, starting December 31, 2026.

Sources

42 U.S.C. §415(i) (the statutory COLA formula). Social Security Administration, press release of October 14, 2026 and 2027 COLA fact sheet (ssa.gov/news/en/cola/factsheets/2027.html), read October 16, 2026. CPI-W index values: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics series CWUR0000SA0, read October 16, 2026 (July, August and September 2026 values; API series CWUR0000SA0). Third-party estimates are not repeated here because they were not re-read after the August CPI release; none is an official SSA figure.

The 2027 COLA on this page is the figure SSA announced on October 14, 2026, and no third-party projection is shown. See the full current-numbers register for every figure this site tracks, dated and sourced. General information, not tax or legal advice.

The 2027 adjustment is settled at 3.6% (SSA, October 14, 2026). Your 2027 numbers separates the settled 2027 figures from the pending ones, with the statutory window for each.

For every figure this program tracks, see the 2027 numbers hub.

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