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Medicare Part B Premium 2027: Trustees’ $209.50 vs. Forecaster Estimates

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Why there are two different projectionsWhat actually sets the premiumIf your premium is higher than the standard figureSources

Updated August 10, 2026. Quick answer. The 2027 standard Medicare Part B premium is not officially announced yet — CMS typically announces it in the first half of November for the following year. The Medicare Trustees’ own projection is $209.50/month; independent private forecasters project a higher $215–219 range. Both are estimates, not the final figure. For comparison, the confirmed 2026 premium is $202.90.

Every announced Medicare Part B standard monthly premium from 2005 through 2026, with 2027 drawn as an empty row22 horizontal bars, one per premium year: 2005 $78.20; 2006 $88.50; 2007 $93.50; 2008 $96.40; 2009 $96.40; 2010 $110.50; 2011 $115.40; 2012 $99.90; 2013 $104.90; 2014 $104.90; 2015 $104.90; 2016 $121.80; 2017 $134.00; 2018 $134.00; 2019 $135.50; 2020 $144.60; 2021 $148.50; 2022 $170.10; 2023 $164.90; 2024 $174.70; 2025 $185.00; 2026 $202.90. 15 of the 21 year-to-year changes were increases, 4 left the premium unchanged, and 2 were decreases (2012 and 2023). The 2027 row is drawn as an open dashed outline with a question mark: no projection is plotted in it, because the 2027 figure has not been announced.22 announced premiums, and one empty slotMedicare Part B standard monthly premium, bythe year it appliedeach figure parsed from the Federal Registernotice that announced it2005$78.202006$88.50+$10.302007$93.50+$5.002008$96.40+$2.902009$96.40unchanged2010$110.50+$14.102011$115.40+$4.902012$99.90−$15.502013$104.90+$5.002014$104.90unchanged2015$104.90unchanged2016$121.80+$16.902017$134.00+$12.202018$134.00unchanged2019$135.50+$1.502020$144.60+$9.102021$148.50+$3.902022$170.10+$21.602023$164.90−$5.202024$174.70+$9.802025$185.00+$10.302026$202.90+$17.902027?not announced — see the calendar below$0$50$100$150$200Clear Money Guide · the 22 Federal Register notices thatannounced these rates (69 FR 54674 through 90 FR 52063), eachfigure parsed from that notice’s own sentence · CC BY 4.0
What the announced record actually looks like — and the row that is still empty. Each bar is the standard monthly Part B premium for that year, taken from the Federal Register notice that announced it, not from a summary. Across 2005–2026 the premium went from $78.20 to $202.90, but it did not simply climb: of the 21 year-to-year changes, 15 were increases, 4 left it unchanged (2009, 2014, 2015, 2018) and 2 were decreases — 2012 fell $15.50 and 2023 fell $5.20. The median change is $5.00; the largest was 2022’s $21.60. From 2019 on, each notice also states its own increase against the year before — “The 2026 standard Part B premium of $202.90 is $17.90 higher than the 2025 premium of $185.00” — so every one of those figures is confirmed twice. One honest limit, in CMS’s own words: “standard” is not what everyone paid. In a hold-harmless year most enrollees pay less, which is why 2012’s standard premium can fall while CMS writes that “For the approximately 30 million Part B enrollees who paid a 2011 premium of $96.40 under the hold-harmless provision, the standard Part B premium rate of $99.90 is $3.50 higher than the 2011 premium that they paid”. Nothing is plotted for 2027: that figure does not exist yet. CC BY 4.0.

Why there are two different projections

The Medicare Trustees Report models Part B costs using the program’s own long-range assumptions, published annually. Private forecasters (financial-media outlets citing independent actuarial estimates) tend to project somewhat higher, reflecting more recent healthcare-cost trend data than the Trustees’ own model incorporates at publication time. Neither is official until CMS’s own November notice.

What the year’s figures mean for your own accounts

Knowing the numbers is not the same as knowing what to do about the income you report and the accounts it comes from, and an adviser can work that through with you.

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What actually sets the premium

Part B premiums are set annually to cover 25% of projected Part B program costs (the other 75% comes from general federal revenue), calculated by CMS actuaries and published via a formal notice, typically in the first half of November. The premium also determines the deductible, which moves on a related but separate calculation.

The date the notice setting each year’s Medicare Part B premium published in the Federal Register, 2005 through 2026, on a September-to-December calendarOne row per premium year. A filled dot marks the Federal Register publication date; where CMS still publishes its own fact sheet for that cycle, an open ring marks the day CMS announced the figure, 4 to 6 days earlier. Dates: the 2005 rate, September 9, 2004; the 2006 rate, September 23, 2005; the 2007 rate, September 18, 2006; the 2008 rate, October 5, 2007; the 2009 rate, September 24, 2008; the 2010 rate, October 22, 2009; the 2011 rate, November 9, 2010; the 2012 rate, November 1, 2011; the 2013 rate, November 21, 2012; the 2014 rate, October 30, 2013; the 2015 rate, October 10, 2014; the 2016 rate, November 16, 2015; the 2017 rate, November 15, 2016; the 2018 rate, November 21, 2017; the 2019 rate, October 17, 2018; the 2020 rate, November 13, 2019; the 2021 rate, November 12, 2020; the 2022 rate, November 17, 2021; the 2023 rate, September 29, 2022; the 2024 rate, October 17, 2023; the 2025 rate, November 14, 2024; the 2026 rate, November 19, 2025. The shaded band is September, the month 42 U.S.C. 1395r(a)(3) directs the Secretary to determine and promulgate the rate. 5 of the 22 notices published in September, 6 in October, 6 in the first half of November and 5 in the second half. The 2027 row is empty.When the number actually arrivesthe day each year’s premium notice published inthe Federal Registeropen ring: the day CMS announced it, where CMSstill publishes that fact sheetshaded: the month §1395r(a)(3) namesSeptemberOctoberNovember2005Sep 9, 20042006Sep 23, 20052007Sep 18, 20062008Oct 5, 20072009Sep 24, 20082010Oct 22, 20092011Nov 9, 20102012Nov 1, 20112013Nov 21, 20122014Oct 30, 20132015Oct 10, 20142016Nov 16, 20152017Nov 15, 20162018Nov 21, 20172019Oct 17, 20182020Nov 13, 20192021Nov 12, 20202022Nov 17, 20212023Sep 29, 20222024Oct 17, 20232025Nov 14, 20242026Nov 19, 20252027?Clear Money Guide · publication dates read from each notice’sown Federal Register masthead · announcement dates from CMS’sown fact sheets (6 of 22 cycles still published) · 42 U.S.C.§1395r(a)(3) · CC BY 4.0
The honest answer to “when will I know?” The statute is specific: the Secretary shall, “during September of each year,” determine and promulgate the premium for the next calendar year (42 U.S.C. §1395r(a)(3)). In practice, 5 of these 22 notices published in September — the most recent being 2023’s — while 6 published in October, 6 in the first half of November and 5 in the second half. The full spread runs from September 9, 2004 (the 2005 rate) to November 21, 2012 (the 2013 and 2018 rates). Publication is not the same act as the announcement: in every cycle whose CMS fact sheet is still online, CMS released the figure 4–6 days before the notice published — 6 cycles, each confirmed by the fact sheet’s own sentence and its own date stamp. The open rings for the other 16 cycles are missing because those fact sheets are no longer posted, not because nothing was announced. The 2027 row is empty on purpose. CC BY 4.0.

If your premium is higher than the standard figure

The numbers above are the standard premium. If your income triggers IRMAA, your actual premium is higher — see the 2027 IRMAA brackets for the income-tier surcharge structure, which is based on income from two years earlier (your 2025 return).

Sources

2026 confirmed premium: CMS. 2027 projections: Medicare Trustees Report (official program projection, not a final rate) and private-forecaster estimates as reported across financial media in 2026 — both explicitly attributed, neither official.

Every projected figure above is attributed to the organization that published it and is explicitly not yet announced by the government body that sets it. This page will be updated with the official figure the day it is announced, and the projection will be struck through rather than deleted, so the record of what was projected vs. what actually happened stays visible. See the full current-numbers register for every figure this site tracks, dated and sourced. General information, not tax or legal advice.

The 2027 premium is not announced, and it is set actuarially rather than by an index, which is why it arrives later than the Part D figures. Your 2027 numbers shows what is already knowable for 2027, and the window this one is published in.

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