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Social Security COLA 2027: Projection, Method, and the Oct 14 Announcement

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How the COLA is actually calculatedWhat a projected percentage means in dollarsThe announcement itselfSources

Updated August 24, 2026. Quick answer. The 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) is not officially announced yet — the Social Security Administration announces it every October 14 (moved to the nearest business day if that falls on a weekend), based on the July–September average of the CPI-W index. The first of the three months that decide it is now published: BLS put July 2026 CPI-W at 327.104 on August 12, 2026, 3.4% above July 2025. Two estimators re-published that day: 3.6% (The Senior Citizens League) and 3.5% (AARP) — their own figures, not SSA’s. August and September are still unpublished, and only the SSA’s own announcement is official.

Every Social Security cost-of-living adjustment from 2009 through 2026, by the year it was paid, with 2027 drawn as an empty row18 horizontal bars, one per payment year: 2009, 5.8%; 2010, 0.0%; 2011, 0.0%; 2012, 3.6%; 2013, 1.7%; 2014, 1.5%; 2015, 1.7%; 2016, 0.0%; 2017, 0.3%; 2018, 2.0%; 2019, 2.8%; 2020, 1.6%; 2021, 1.3%; 2022, 5.9%; 2023, 8.7%; 2024, 3.2%; 2025, 2.5%; 2026, 2.8%. Three years produced no increase at all. The 2027 row is drawn as an open dashed outline with a question mark, because that adjustment has not been announced: the data it is computed from does not exist yet.18 announced increases, and one emptyslotSocial Security cost-of-living adjustment, bythe year it is paidevery increase since 2009, as published by SSA20095.8%20100.0%no increase: the index did not exceed itsbase quarter20110.0%still no increase: the index had notpassed its 2008 base quarter20123.6%measured against 2008, not 2010: the basedoes not reset in a 0.0% year20131.7%20141.5%20151.7%20160.0%no increase: the index did not exceed itsbase quarter20170.3%measured against 2014, not 2015: the basedoes not reset in a 0.0% year20182.0%20192.8%20201.6%20211.3%20225.9%20238.7%20243.2%20252.5%20262.8%2027?not announced — see the calendar below0%2%4%6%8%Clear Money Guide · SSA, Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (publishedseries), recomputed from SSA’s published CPI-W monthly tableunder 42 U.S.C. §415(i) · CC BY 4.0
What an announced COLA has actually looked like — and the row that is still empty. Each bar is the increase paid in that calendar year, taken from SSA’s own published series. Across these 18 years they run from 0.0% to 8.7%, with a median of 1.85%, and 3 of them were 0.0% — no increase at all. Every bar here was also recomputed independently from SSA’s published CPI-W monthly table under 42 U.S.C. §415(i), and all 18 reproduce the published figure exactly, which is why the series starts at 2009: that is the first payment year whose whole calculation rests on index values BLS publishes to three decimals. 3 of these rows carry the part a headline number hides — after a 0.0% year the measuring base does not reset, so the 2012 increase of 3.6% was measured against the third quarter of 2008, 3 years earlier, and not against the year before it (§415(i)(1)(D)). The 2027 row is drawn open, and no projection is plotted in it: the 2027 figure is not a number anyone has yet, including us. CC BY 4.0.

The figures change; the claiming decision is still yours

These numbers set the frame, but what they mean for when you claim and what you live on in the meantime depends on the rest of your income and savings, and an adviser can look at that with you.

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How the COLA is actually calculated

By statute (42 U.S.C. §415(i)), the COLA is the percentage increase in the average CPI-W (Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers) for the third quarter of the current year over the third quarter of the prior year. That means the actual 2027 figure can’t exist until September 2026’s inflation data is in — anything published before then, including the estimate above, is a projection built on partial-year data.

The calendar behind the 2027 cost-of-living adjustment: a final base quarter, a measuring quarter with one of its three months published, and the statutory 45-day determination windowFour bands on a calendar running from July 2025 to March 2027. The July to September 2025 base quarter is drawn solid, with its published average CPI-W of 317.265. The July to September 2026 measuring quarter is drawn as a dashed outline with its first month filled, because BLS has published CPI-W through July 2026 and no further. A third band runs from the quarter’s close on September 30, 2026 to November 14, 2026, the statutory deadline for publishing the determination, with the window in which the last 15 determinations actually published marked inside it. The last band is the December 2026 effective month and the January 2027 payment. A dashed vertical line marks August 24, 2026, the date this page carries, which falls inside the measuring quarter.Why the 2027 figure cannot exist yetthe two quarters the statute compares, on areal calendarBase quarter: July–September 2025 — publishedaverage CPI-W 317.265. This half of thecalculation is already final.Measuring quarter: July–September 2026 — oneof three months inBLS put July 2026 CPI-W at 327.104 on Aug 12.August and September are not published yet.Determination due: within 45 days of thequarter’s closeby November 14, 2026 (§415(i)(2)(D)). The last15 were published Oct 22–Nov 5.Effective with December 2026 benefits — paidJanuary 2027§415(i)(2)(A)(ii) sets the effective month;December’s benefit is the payment that arrivesin January.this page, Aug 24, 2026Jul 2025Jan 2026Jul 2026Jan 2027Clear Money Guide · 42 U.S.C. §415(i) · SSA CPI-W table andlatest-COLA determination · Federal Register determinationrecord, 2011–2025 · CC BY 4.0
Half of this calculation is final; the other half is now one month in. By §415(i)(1)(D) and (G), the adjustment is the percentage increase in the average CPI-W for July–September 2026 over the average for the most recent quarter that produced an increase — July–September 2025, whose average SSA has already published as 317.265. One of the three missing numbers is in: BLS published July 2026 CPI-W at 327.104 on August 12, 2026, 3.4% above July 2025. August and September are not out yet, and on August 24, 2026, the date this page carries, the quarter that decides the answer does not close for another 37 days. That is the whole reason every figure published before October is an estimate. The statute fixes a deadline, not an announcement date: §415(i)(2)(D) requires the determination in the Federal Register within 45 days of the quarter’s close, i.e. by November 14, 2026; the last 15 determinations, 2011 through 2025, were published between October 22 and November 5 (SSA’s press announcement is a separate, earlier act). Whatever the number turns out to be, §415(i)(2)(A)(ii) makes it effective with December 2026 benefits — the payment that arrives in January 2027. CC BY 4.0.

What a projected percentage means in dollars

A COLA percentage applies to your own current benefit, not a generic “average” figure — a 3.6% COLA on a $1,800 monthly benefit is about $65 more per month; on a $2,800 benefit, about $101 more. The number that actually matters for your budget is the net increase after Medicare Part B’s premium (usually deducted directly from the check) rises too — see what the hold-harmless rule protects you from, and who it doesn’t cover.

The announcement itself

The SSA publishes the official COLA figure, alongside the new maximum taxable earnings base and other wage-indexed figures, in a fact sheet released October 14, 2026. This page will be updated with the official number that day.

Sources

42 U.S.C. §415(i) (the statutory COLA formula). CPI-W index values: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics series CWUR0000SA0, read August 24, 2026. Current projections: The Senior Citizens League, release of August 12, 2026 (3.6%), and AARP, updated August 12, 2026 (3.5%) — each read at the publisher’s own site, and neither an official SSA figure.

Every projected figure above is attributed to the organization that published it and is explicitly not yet announced by the government body that sets it. This page will be updated with the official figure the day it is announced, and the projection will be struck through rather than deleted, so the record of what was projected vs. what actually happened stays visible. See the full current-numbers register for every figure this site tracks, dated and sourced. General information, not tax or legal advice.

The 2027 adjustment cannot be known until the third quarter of 2026 closes — that is the measurement, not a forecast. Your 2027 numbers separates the settled 2027 figures from the pending ones, with the statutory window for each.

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